We've reached a weird time in the life of console hardware. Both the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 turn six this year - that's about 108 in human years - and usually by now we'd be hearing solid news of the next generation.
Yes, we've all latched onto the rumours just out of sheer habit - we know a PlayStation 5 and Xbox Two (or whatever it'll be called) are in the works - but there doesn't seem to be much of an appetite for them, beyond the hardcore. Wisely, both Sony and Microsoft seem cautious about making any concrete announcements, lest they kneecap their current business.
Chances are we will get some sort of actual information this year, and there have even been reports that the PS5 could make it to market as early as Christmas 2019 (though that seems unlikely), but both Sony and Microsoft are slightly prancing around the issue.
And they're right to, because - particularly given that we have the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X more or less catering to those who want their games to have a little more oomph in the trouser department - there doesn't seem to be a need for a new generation cycle of consoles.
The problem both Sony and Microsoft are no doubt wrestling with is the same issue that Apple has slammed its fat face into; technology has reached something of a plateau. In the past, the leaps between hardware generations would be very obvious, but the jumps have become ever smaller and more incremental, to the point that, when the PS4 first came out, it was hard to see what it offered over the PS3.
Indeed, Nintendo's Switch isn't particularly significantly more powerful than the Wii U - to the degree that its biggest launch title, Breath of the Wild, was released concurrently with a more or less identical Wii U version. What Nintendo did do, however, was offer something more than just more graphical power, by making it a hybrid handheld thing.
With the Switch being a bona-fide success - and demonstrating that, perhaps, consumers care less about raw power than Sony and Microsoft would like to believe - that's a path that's now closed to the PS5 and Xbox Two.
So what are the options for Sony and Microsoft, and the future of their hardware business? Are there any?
Yes, we've all latched onto the rumours just out of sheer habit - we know a PlayStation 5 and Xbox Two (or whatever it'll be called) are in the works - but there doesn't seem to be much of an appetite for them, beyond the hardcore. Wisely, both Sony and Microsoft seem cautious about making any concrete announcements, lest they kneecap their current business.
Chances are we will get some sort of actual information this year, and there have even been reports that the PS5 could make it to market as early as Christmas 2019 (though that seems unlikely), but both Sony and Microsoft are slightly prancing around the issue.
And they're right to, because - particularly given that we have the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X more or less catering to those who want their games to have a little more oomph in the trouser department - there doesn't seem to be a need for a new generation cycle of consoles.
The problem both Sony and Microsoft are no doubt wrestling with is the same issue that Apple has slammed its fat face into; technology has reached something of a plateau. In the past, the leaps between hardware generations would be very obvious, but the jumps have become ever smaller and more incremental, to the point that, when the PS4 first came out, it was hard to see what it offered over the PS3.
Indeed, Nintendo's Switch isn't particularly significantly more powerful than the Wii U - to the degree that its biggest launch title, Breath of the Wild, was released concurrently with a more or less identical Wii U version. What Nintendo did do, however, was offer something more than just more graphical power, by making it a hybrid handheld thing.
With the Switch being a bona-fide success - and demonstrating that, perhaps, consumers care less about raw power than Sony and Microsoft would like to believe - that's a path that's now closed to the PS5 and Xbox Two.
So what are the options for Sony and Microsoft, and the future of their hardware business? Are there any?
PREDICT-O-TRON
Most predictions suggest that the next generation will offer native 4k visuals, possibly even 8k, but the blunt reality is that this is very, very boring to most people. Sharper graphics alone are not going to shift a significant number of machines. You look at the big killer apps of past hardware, and they're all features which were easy for the average punter to grasp and get excited about.
The N64 was 3D, the PS2 could play DVDs, the DS had a touch-screen, the Wii let you control games by waving your arms around like you were fighting your way through a cloud of aphids. Recent attempts by Sony - the PSVR - and Microsoft - Kinect - haven't wooed the imagination in the same lewd fashion.
Again, it's the Apple problem; the iPhone X's supposed killer feature was face recognition, but it felt like flailing around for a gimmick, compared to the astonishing, game-changing, "I'm a Star Trek, mum!", feeling of using that first generation iPhone.
That's what Microsoft and Sony need if they want the masses to buy into their next generation plans; something game-changing, like the Switch. If you start getting all technical, then people tune out. The thing is, I'm not sure there's anything game-changing that they can do, and I suspect that the real shift for the games industry won't come from any of the current players.
Streaming - being able to play games that are more powerful than the base console hardware is capable of on its own - is the most logical path for games to take. However, I don't know whether the idea of it is sufficiently sexy, or if internet speeds are universally fast enough, for it to grab the imagination; more likely it'll happen without the average punter even realising, much in the way that 4k TVs are gradually becoming the standard, rather than an immediate must-have.
Also, there is the question of how heavily Sony and Microsoft - Microsoft has at least announced it's investing in cloud gaming - would promote something that may eventually bring an end to the traditional console hardware model. Once cloud gaming gets a foothold, Sony and Microsoft will lose control of their platforms, allowing software publishers to offer their games directly to customers, regardless of the branded hardware.
Most predictions suggest that the next generation will offer native 4k visuals, possibly even 8k, but the blunt reality is that this is very, very boring to most people. Sharper graphics alone are not going to shift a significant number of machines. You look at the big killer apps of past hardware, and they're all features which were easy for the average punter to grasp and get excited about.
The N64 was 3D, the PS2 could play DVDs, the DS had a touch-screen, the Wii let you control games by waving your arms around like you were fighting your way through a cloud of aphids. Recent attempts by Sony - the PSVR - and Microsoft - Kinect - haven't wooed the imagination in the same lewd fashion.
Again, it's the Apple problem; the iPhone X's supposed killer feature was face recognition, but it felt like flailing around for a gimmick, compared to the astonishing, game-changing, "I'm a Star Trek, mum!", feeling of using that first generation iPhone.
That's what Microsoft and Sony need if they want the masses to buy into their next generation plans; something game-changing, like the Switch. If you start getting all technical, then people tune out. The thing is, I'm not sure there's anything game-changing that they can do, and I suspect that the real shift for the games industry won't come from any of the current players.
Streaming - being able to play games that are more powerful than the base console hardware is capable of on its own - is the most logical path for games to take. However, I don't know whether the idea of it is sufficiently sexy, or if internet speeds are universally fast enough, for it to grab the imagination; more likely it'll happen without the average punter even realising, much in the way that 4k TVs are gradually becoming the standard, rather than an immediate must-have.
Also, there is the question of how heavily Sony and Microsoft - Microsoft has at least announced it's investing in cloud gaming - would promote something that may eventually bring an end to the traditional console hardware model. Once cloud gaming gets a foothold, Sony and Microsoft will lose control of their platforms, allowing software publishers to offer their games directly to customers, regardless of the branded hardware.
FAILURE 2.0
After the costly failure of Kinect 2.0 on the Xbox One, Microsoft is likely going to be tentative with whatever steps it takes next, but that doesn't alter the reality that most of its customers are happy enough with their current hardware, and are in no hurry to upgrade. And yet, the success of the Switch has also demonstrated that gambles - which had the potential to be seen as gimmicky - can also pay off.
Nevertheless, even Nintendo seemed to acknowledge recently that at some future point it would get out of the hardware game - possibly reading the tealeaves after Assassin's Creed Odyssey, otherwise too demanding for the Switch, has been made available for the system via a streaming service (albeit only in Japan).
I think there's a good chance that the next generation of console hardware - whatever form it takes - will be the last - at least, in the way we've been familiar with it up until now. I do believe that streaming is the future, and that we're going to see a huge shift similar to the one that's happened with TV, where play-on-demand becomes the norm - with companies akin to Netflix even hosting games in addition to movies and TV shows.
It's not too far away now that we're going to reach a point where the only thing you're going to need to play a game is a subscription, a controller, and a screen.
After the costly failure of Kinect 2.0 on the Xbox One, Microsoft is likely going to be tentative with whatever steps it takes next, but that doesn't alter the reality that most of its customers are happy enough with their current hardware, and are in no hurry to upgrade. And yet, the success of the Switch has also demonstrated that gambles - which had the potential to be seen as gimmicky - can also pay off.
Nevertheless, even Nintendo seemed to acknowledge recently that at some future point it would get out of the hardware game - possibly reading the tealeaves after Assassin's Creed Odyssey, otherwise too demanding for the Switch, has been made available for the system via a streaming service (albeit only in Japan).
I think there's a good chance that the next generation of console hardware - whatever form it takes - will be the last - at least, in the way we've been familiar with it up until now. I do believe that streaming is the future, and that we're going to see a huge shift similar to the one that's happened with TV, where play-on-demand becomes the norm - with companies akin to Netflix even hosting games in addition to movies and TV shows.
It's not too far away now that we're going to reach a point where the only thing you're going to need to play a game is a subscription, a controller, and a screen.
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