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PLAYSTATION 5 AND XBOX TWO WILL BE THE LAST GENERATION OF CONSOLE HARDWARE

10/1/2019

28 Comments

 
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We've reached a weird time in the life of console hardware. Both the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 turn six this year - that's about 108 in human years - and usually by now we'd be hearing solid news of the next generation.

​Yes, we've all latched onto the rumours just out of sheer habit - we know a PlayStation 5 and Xbox Two (or whatever it'll be called) are in the works - but there doesn't seem to be much of an appetite for them, beyond the hardcore. Wisely, both Sony and Microsoft seem cautious about making any concrete announcements, lest they kneecap their current business.

Chances are we will get some sort of actual information this year, and there have even been reports that the PS5 could make it to market as early as Christmas 2019 (though that seems unlikely), but both Sony and Microsoft are slightly prancing around the issue.

And they're right to, because - particularly given that we have the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X more or less catering to those who want their games to have a little more oomph in the trouser department - there doesn't seem to be a need for a new generation cycle of consoles.

The problem both Sony and Microsoft are no doubt wrestling with is the same issue that Apple has slammed its fat face into; technology has reached something of a plateau. In the past, the leaps between hardware generations would be very obvious, but the jumps have become ever smaller and more incremental, to the point that, when the PS4 first came out, it was hard to see what it offered over the PS3.

Indeed, Nintendo's Switch isn't particularly significantly more powerful than the Wii U - to the degree that its biggest launch title, Breath of the Wild, was released concurrently with a more or less identical Wii U version. What Nintendo did do, however, was offer something more than just more graphical power, by making it a hybrid handheld thing.

With the Switch being a bona-fide success - and demonstrating that, perhaps, consumers care less about raw power than Sony and Microsoft would like to believe - that's a path that's now closed to the PS5 and Xbox Two.

So what are the options for Sony and Microsoft, and the future of their hardware business? Are there any?
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PREDICT-O-TRON
Most predictions suggest that the next generation will offer native 4k visuals, possibly even 8k, but the blunt reality is that this is very, very boring to most people. Sharper graphics alone are not going to shift a significant number of machines. You look at the big killer apps of past hardware, and they're all  features which were easy for the average punter to grasp and get excited about.

The N64 was 3D, the PS2 could play DVDs, the DS had a touch-screen, the Wii let you control games by waving your arms around like you were fighting your way through a cloud of aphids. Recent attempts by Sony - the PSVR - and Microsoft - Kinect - haven't wooed the imagination in the same lewd fashion.

Again, it's the Apple problem; the iPhone X's supposed killer feature was face recognition, but it felt like flailing around for a gimmick, compared to the astonishing, game-changing, "I'm a Star Trek, mum!", feeling of using that first generation iPhone. 

That's what Microsoft and Sony need if they want the masses to buy into their next generation plans; something game-changing, like the Switch. If you start getting all technical, then people tune out. The thing is, I'm not sure there's anything game-changing that they can do, and I suspect that the real shift for the games industry won't come from any of the current players.

Streaming - being able to play games that are more powerful than the base console hardware is capable of on its own - is the most logical path for games to take. However, I don't know whether the idea of it is sufficiently sexy, or if internet speeds are universally fast enough, for it to grab the imagination; more likely it'll happen without the average punter even realising, much in the way that 4k  TVs are gradually becoming the standard, rather than an immediate must-have.

Also, there is the question of how heavily Sony and Microsoft - Microsoft has at least announced it's investing in cloud gaming - would promote something that may eventually bring an end to the traditional console hardware model. Once cloud gaming gets a foothold, Sony and Microsoft will lose control of their platforms, allowing software publishers to offer their games directly to customers, regardless of the branded hardware. 
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FAILURE 2.0
After the costly failure of Kinect 2.0 on the Xbox One, Microsoft is likely going to be tentative with whatever steps it takes next, but that doesn't alter the reality that most of its customers are happy enough with their current hardware, and are in no hurry to upgrade. And yet, the success of the Switch has also demonstrated that gambles - which had the potential to be seen as gimmicky - can also pay off. 

Nevertheless, even Nintendo seemed to acknowledge recently that at some future point it would get out of the hardware game - possibly reading the tealeaves after Assassin's Creed Odyssey, otherwise too demanding for the Switch, has been made available for the system via a streaming service (albeit only in Japan). 

I think there's a good chance that the next generation of console hardware - whatever form it takes - will be the last - at least, in the way we've been familiar with it up until now. I do believe that streaming is the future, and that we're going to see a huge shift similar to the one that's happened with TV, where play-on-demand becomes the norm - with companies akin to Netflix even hosting games in addition to movies and TV shows. 

It's not too far away now that we're going to reach a point where the only thing you're going to need to play a game is a subscription, a controller, and a screen. 
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28 Comments
Tw
10/1/2019 10:52:20 am

I think this is what Sony and MS would like to happen but I'm not convinced that enough people will have good enough broadband on that timescale.

Personally, if the generation after next contains one console that still does its processing locally, that'll be the one that I buy.

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@DancesWithYaks
10/1/2019 11:13:06 am

You don't think there will be a thing where you stick a computer up your bottom and it's connected to your brain and you play all games that way? No, I don't want that anyway.

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AlexFromDroitwich
10/1/2019 12:18:51 pm

I think that there will, and I think we will call it the Suppositron.

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Obraxis
10/1/2019 11:16:25 am

The entire industry is seeing this coming.
Google already has this working surprisingly well. AMD and Nvidia already have headless GPUs for server farms, ready & waiting to power next-gen titles.
Users will never have to 'upgrade' to get a better experience, it'll just happen for them seamlessly.
This might also force a lot more comparability for older titles, as they will have to be kept working on the game streaming services (as well as Linux ports as most servers will be on Linux).
We'll also have no more faulty consoles, being in the cloud. I'll miss owning them though. Going to be an interesting time in the future.

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Tw
10/1/2019 11:26:10 am

Yeah, I think Gamepass is them trying to get us used to not owning stuff too.

What about Switch, though? It's been a big success, presumably because you can play it outside of your home. How am I supposed to have whimsical rooftop gaming parties with all those wholesome looking attractive people if the WiFi doesn't reach up there?

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Td
10/1/2019 02:34:04 pm

Data is becoming faster and more affordable than WiFi. In 5 years you won't use wifi unless for old hardware.

Tw
10/1/2019 03:07:07 pm

I'd say five years is a little optimistic. Currently a month of unlimited fibre access costs about the same as 50gb on 4g. I don't doubt the trend is going that way but I bet the ps5 comes with wifi and not a sim card.

Penyrolewen
10/1/2019 09:31:24 pm

Data...hahaha! My village (about 3 miles from Exeter and with an A road running through it so hardly the sticks) doesn’t even get 3G. Data, I wish.

lc man
10/1/2019 11:46:37 am

everything in this is wrong

latency means streaming will never take off in any meaningful way.
the jump to ps5 will be more than just graphical. cpu was neglectedin the last console cylcle and it won't be this time. games will be capable of much more, it'll take a while for devs to get there.
the ps4 didn't need a gimmick or a hook to sell an embarrassing amount of units, it was an affordable box that played all the games (cod and fifa)

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Mr Biffo
10/1/2019 01:45:18 pm

I remember somebody years ago telling me I was wrong when I wrote about wireless surround sound speakers...

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Balaska
10/1/2019 05:42:20 pm

Hmmm, latency is an issue for some, but not for all. 12 ms and 480 mbs is possible as that is what I get. It frustrates me somewhat as the technology is around for everyone to have sub 10 ms latency and 10 gbs, it's just that BT and Virgin arent interested in investing in the infrastructure. Should another company come along, like Google perhaps... https://fiber.google.com/about/

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FunkyMonkey
10/1/2019 11:57:56 am

I don't fancy subscription model gaming, and having learned that no new purchases of any Middle-earth-based LEGO games can now be allowed, I'm beginning to rethink the digital distribution model of Steam and GoG!

For a while now, it's been good. But the great problem of Digital Distribution is that a publisher can withdraw their product at any time and Boom! It's gone. No evidence of Existence.

Physical games weren't like that. Sure, a disc can get damaged, Cartridges may need TLC on their connector edges occasionally, And Tapes gradually Wear out. Even the metal protector on a disk will eventually fall off. But you still have something to show for it. Something that tell you that You OWN this.

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Zicconnuts
20/3/2019 01:29:27 pm

DRM-free installers have the advantage over the regular model Steam runs on such as you can store, and make copies of game/patch installers as many times as you want. And yes, the possibility of a game dissappearing from digital distribution does exist. But you know what is possible should that happen, piracy.

Also if people read the EULAs modern games come with even on physical medium, they would know they're only given rights to rent of liscense, not ownership. Also let's not forget about discs that still makes you install games, discs that don't come with the full game forcing you to download the rest of the game online, and day-one patches as game may or may not be freature-restricted or broken without it.

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Mark
10/1/2019 11:59:49 am

Love the ps5 mock up at the top of the article I would definitely buy that much more interesting than a slab of plastic. Like you mentioned a new console generation used to be a thing of excitement now it’s oh no do I really have to shell out 300 quid to play the same games again, I’m sticking with the switch from now on the PS4 will be my last big console. The switch has made gaming exciting again for me Nintendo still have an element of the toy maker to their designs

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MENTALIST
10/1/2019 12:00:28 pm

Well, I'm sure there'll be at least one and a half generations left, since the mid-gen refresh of PS4 Pro and box One X seem to be viewed as a success.

I think there is actually quite a distinct possibility of one after that as well, which, like Switch will likely be of "the same power level but portable" variety. This will be especially necessary if untethered VR, or perhaps more likely Hololens or Magic Leap style AR, become a thing worth having. Streaming lag is going to be an especially problematic thing to fix if the user experience depends on realtime sensor feedback.

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RG
10/1/2019 12:24:56 pm

I'm still very dubious as to the feasibility of everybody streaming games. Even if enough people had the required bandwidth, would the networks be able to keep up with the shear amount of data needed? Would the telecoms boxes on the streets be able to cope with several houses streaming games on top of the current demand and higher and higher definition TV streaming?

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DEAN
10/1/2019 01:30:57 pm

I agree with much of that but don't think that the PS5 or No. TWO will need any gimmicks to shift themselves with.

MS has been investing in content creation for it's hardware and I feel strong as Superman that it will dominate the next round - Sony really seem to be floundering right now and their VR push is an uphill exercise.

Streaming is the future, completely agree, and concerns of latency are needless because the technology will be there to buffer the bollocks out of all that - sure, we'll all be beta testers for a long while but it's the only way I see it going.

The big change I'm looking forward to is the end of exclusivity - the writing is on the wall for requiring multiple machines to play every game - it's just absurd that we've let the bastards away with it for so long.

I think the PRO and X are interesting because it's fairly obvious that they've both failed to catch-on in any meaningful way. I don't agree that it offers any indication that people are not bothered about graphics; I think it's just a confusing landscape for people - something a big fat FIVE or TWO will quickly remedy.

My prediction is this - Xbox will reign supreme, the majority of people will be downloading games, more gamers will be subscribing to streaming services (something I'm sure both Sony and MS will be driving harder) and VR will give up the ghost.

Love it - fucking love it - love new hardware and all the bollocks that goes with it!

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DEAN
10/1/2019 01:34:50 pm

Oh and another thing - it'll be *ahem* GAME OVER for GAME. There's no way they fit into the future of gaming. Between Amazon and the shift to downloading games and the rise of streaming subscriptions - GAME is fucked.

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CdrJameson
10/1/2019 03:47:36 pm

You can't buffer your way around latency - that's just making it worse.
However, most people don't care any more about a few ms of latency than they do about the exact speed of the cpu. Good enough is good enough. The latency of a cheap keyboard can easily be higher than the round-trip latency of a game stream (which I know, because I've measured it).

DEAN
10/1/2019 04:49:26 pm

You'll have to forgive my ignorance, Commander, but it depends at which end all the dirty buffering goes on, right? For instance, if the video is slightly delayed to compensate? There'll be a way of sorting it out - there always is!

Having played on both PS NOW and Xbox Gamer Pass I can say this - everything feels less immediate and, Jameson, you're not allowing for word of mouth - once that shit starts even people that would have been none the wiser will hate it and condemn it as being not fit for purpose.

CdrJameson
10/1/2019 09:37:16 pm

The interesting thing will be when they start designing games specifically for streaming services, games which are designed to accomodate a certain lag.
Currently though they're barking up the wrong tree of trying to stream very high quality visuals from 3D games. All that stuff's based on TV video encoders that consider 2-4 SECONDS of lag 'ultra low latency' (seriously, 30 seconds of lag is considered acceptable in the broadcast world).

Chris
11/1/2019 12:37:47 pm

With broadcast you're not directly controlling the action on screen, so just play out the content 30 seconds earlier (or whatever) and nobody's any the wiser. Except live events, where a couple of seconds might go unnoticed, but if the fireworks for new year start 30 seconds late it starts looking a bit odd.

Can't do that with games, the video needs to be compressed and sent with milliseconds of delay, which either means lots of processing power, terrible quality, or some other method of updating the remote screen quickly.

Meatballs-me-branch-me-do
11/1/2019 05:34:52 pm

Streaming strikes me as being a house of straw. Unless conditions are perfect, it doesn’t work.

I use SAP-based systems at work all day and they talk back and forth with the server so much that any problems with that are painful just filling in stupid fields... not trying to headshot space Nazis from beyond the sun.

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lilock3
10/1/2019 01:34:17 pm

I think there's always going to be a market with the hardcore for dedicated gaming hardware - the same way in which a dedicated camera is still essential to photography enthusiasts. However, I entirely agree that casual and mainstream gamers would most likely be happy with some kind of streaming service that just works with a minimum of fuss on the hardware they already organically have at some point in the future.

What will this hardcore gaming platform be? Probably the PC.

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Clive Stone link
10/1/2019 03:55:47 pm

Oooh, I cannot wait for the next gen, and then learning shortly after that they're going to be releasing an upgraded model or 2, like they did this time around. This time it will plug into your FACE.

Can't wait to see what Microsoft and their somewhat amazing wand of nomenclature call their next puppy. Xbox Blue? Xboxofsocks? Xbox4eva? Xbollox?

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Dr. Budd Buttocks, MD
10/1/2019 04:31:54 pm

The "everything as a service" model is the sad but inevitable conclusion of all entertainment. It will kill piracy and the second hand market if you can't actually possess a copy of the software you're paying to access. And you can say goodbye to preserving older titles when licenses expire or companies go tits up.

The only thing that can possibly push back against this is VR, because - speaking as someone who deals with big fancy networks in my day job - there is absolutely no chance of online game streaming being able to reach the low latency critical for VR any time soon. Not unless there is some sort of hybrid local/remote rendering method figured out, but that's a whole other discussion.

The whole idea of proprietary console hardware and the exclusivity that comes with it is making very little sense these days. All current gen consoles are for all intents and purposes just off the shelf PCs or Android tablets sharing the same tech.

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Meatballs-me-branch-me-do
11/1/2019 05:25:49 pm

The thing I don’t get, and I’ve been saying this for years, is why they don’t use the added oomph to make the game worlds more alive: instead, they up the poly count.

Consider how in GTA 3 way back in 2001, you’d have maybe ten cars on screen at once, and half a dozen pedestrians.

GTA V is the same (unless you install a mod on the PC version). It’s a beautiful rendition of a city that falls competent flat because there’s no traffic or crowds.

Same with any number of other games where crowds and bustling environments simply don’t exist in favor of ludicrously high poly models you never get close enough to appreciate the fine details of.

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DEAN
12/1/2019 10:31:14 am

Totally get you, Balls, but imagine being part of a production meeting for a game and the answer you're looking for will present itself this rapidly: rapidly:

"Okay, so we can make the game look amazing but only have a few things on screen at once or we can have a hundred things that look a bit last gen?"

It's a simple case of getting their priorities in order and as much as I love what you're describing, I'd make the exact same decision that they do.

Furthermore, I would imagine that the amount of time and processing power that it would take to convincingly create a sense of population (ie people looking and behaving slightly differently, cars that don't behave more like trams etc) would be insane.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/9Efga-aU1Gw/maxresdefault.jpg

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